Sussex research has enhanced climate resilience in Africa by changing the way weather and climate forecast information is produced and used in practice by government agencies, national and international NGOs and populations at risk.
Issue
Much of sub-Saharan Africa is extremely vulnerable to present and future climate shocks, which jeopardise development gains as it continues its rapid socio-economic transformation. Climate information services in sub-Saharan Africa have always had very limited uptake by users, and as a result climate risk management has remained ‘reactive’.
Approach
Sussex researchers addressed well-recognised barriers to effective anticipatory climate risk management and have produced a large body of strongly interdisciplinary research on African climate risk.
The researchers have developed new weather/climate forecast and scenario products and novel approaches and tools for ‘decision-making under uncertainty’. These have been applied in a wide range of risk management contexts. Their work brought together different stakeholders, knowledge and experiences to jointly co-produce new climate information.
Impact
In Kenya, research led to new co-produced decision-relevant forecast products for drought and flood hazards, over forecast lead-times of days to months. These products are now in operational production by mandated forecasting agencies for example the Kenya Meteorological Department, and the Regional Centre for Mapping and Resource Development for East Africa.
The research has also influenced policies and practices towards climate-resilient development, focusing on major development decisions across the Water-Energy-Food nexus and urban planning in contexts across Africa. For example, the GroFutures project, on groundwater recharge under changing climate, has informed sustainable exploitation of groundwater for climate-resilient agriculture and water supply. The project has contributed to a new pan-Africa groundwater initiative, by the African Ministers’ Council on Water, to guide its 55 member states to develop, manage and utilise groundwater resources to assure water, food and energy security in Africa.
The research has also improved climate-resilient development in Burkina Faso and Senegal. Application of the ‘adaptation pathway’ approach to co-production enabled an open exploration of climate-resilient development pathways. In Burkina Faso, this raised awareness of climate risk among decision-makers and supported modelling of the outcomes of different land use polices on future flood risk scenarios.
More information
Institution: University of Sussex
Researchers: Professor Martin Todd, Professor Dominic Kniveton, Dr Pedram Rowhan, Dr Mohammad Shamsudduha