An area-based model developed to identify fuel-poor households has changed policy on reducing fuel poverty in Northern Ireland and improved the provision of assistance to people in need.
Issue
Fuel poverty is disproportionately severe in Northern Ireland (NI). Approximately 70% of homes in the region are not connected to the gas network, leading to over-reliance on home heating oil making households vulnerable to energy price fluctuations. The particularly acute effect of the 2010 recession in NI led to decreases in household income which increased rates of fuel poverty.
Approach
Research at Ulster University, improved the approach of finding fuel poor homes by devising an algorithm that uses Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to increase the precision with which homes suffering from fuel poverty can be targeted for support.
The model is based on small census zones and used to give those zones a fuel poverty risk score based on variables including tenure, household income, property age and type, temperature, and type of fuel source.
Impacts
In 2014, the Department for Communities in Northern Ireland (DFCNI) overhauled its fuel poverty strategy on the basis of the innovative GIS model, and initiated a new strategic intervention plan to reduce fuel poverty – the Affordable Warmth Scheme.
Between 2014 and 2017, the NI government used the model to allocate spending of over £66,000,000 on making approximately 16,000 fuel-poor households (42,000 individuals) across NI more energy efficient. Significant impacts, equivalent to gains worth over approximately £93,370,000, have been made on health and wellbeing. Related reductions in NHS costs were £4,090,000. Each participating household stands to save approximately 118,000kWh of energy, 25,100kg of CO2 and £4,000 in fuel costs over the lifetime of the energy efficiency measures installed.
Using the area-based targeting approach has allowed councils to increase the accuracy of their assessments and the efficiency of their system for access to fuel poverty relief.
More information
Institution: Ulster University
Researcher: Dr Paul Mckenzie